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Editor: @PhoenixxDown

How Social Psychology Turns Friends and Family Into Crypto Top Signals

It’s a bit of a meme but undeniably real: when non-crypto friends and family suddenly start asking about Bitcoin or altcoins, seasoned investors jokingly label it a "top signal."

We've all experienced it—those texts or calls that, in hindsight, align suspiciously with market tops. But why does this phenomenon happen? Is it just magic, or is there a psychological basis for this uncanny timing?

Actually, it’s quite explainable, rooted in psychology, social behavior, and market dynamics. Let’s break it down:

Herd Mentality

In financial markets, especially volatile ones like crypto, herd behavior plays a massive role. When the market sees significant gains, it becomes a mainstream conversation.

Friends and family who were previously uninterested suddenly take notice, drawn in by media reports, social media buzz, and the success stories of early investors. When non-investor acquaintances start asking about buying in, it’s a sign the market has captured enough attention to potentially be at saturation.

Timing of Information Spread

Information about rising markets spreads faster than news about declines, thanks to human optimism bias. People love sharing gains but rarely talk about losses.

It’s like seeing a meme that’s gone viral—by the time it’s on everyone’s lips, it’s often past its peak in novelty or quality. When your circle suddenly shows interest, they’re often reacting to older information that’s already driven others to invest.

Social Proof and FOMO

Social proof—the tendency to follow others’ actions—and FOMO play large roles here. When someone sees others investing successfully, they feel the pull to join in.

A person without trading experience is far more susceptible to FOMO and likely to act emotionally, making impulsive investments. When FOMO peaks, it often signals the market is ready for a correction.

So, it’s not magic that makes this a reliable indicator to sell or take profits—it’s human psychology. But what if you’re new here and feel like you might inadvertently be a “top signal” yourself? Here are a few tips to combat that:

Avoid Immediate Action Based on Hype

When you first hear about a token or Ordinal through social media, news, or friends, resist the urge to buy immediately. Instead, let the initial excitement settle—this can help you avoid buying at the peak. Missed this run? Don’t worry; there are opportunities everywhere.

Educate Yourself Thoroughly

Before making any investment, spend time understanding what you’re buying. Knowing the basics is good, but creating your own conviction about an asset is even better. Don’t just rely on your friend’s recommendation. When you have a personal thesis, price swings are easier to manage, and you’ll make better decisions.

Use Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Instead of putting in a lump sum at once, invest small, consistent amounts over time. DCA spreads your risk and reduces the chance of buying at a peak.

For us in Ordinals, and certainly Runes, it’s probably been a while since we’ve had an influx of these texts come through. However, they are coming, and they will be your signal.

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Todays Markets

Catch up with @CryptoLandy in yesterdays Wednesday Check-In:

Ordinals

Even with the news that Udi’s new friend, AIXBT, changed its PFP back from a Quantum Cat to its usual purple Pepe the Frog, the Cats remain unbothered and maintain their floor price nicely above 0.35 BTC.

Bitcoin Puppets take the volume chart today with 5.5 BTC, and while NodeMonkes fall two places, they still clock up a respectable 3.6 BTC in sales. Additionally, their floor seems largely unaffected by the cryptic Rocktoshi post saying, “I’m out.”

Both instances show signs that holders are true believers and not susceptible to panicking on short-term news that is generally inconsequential. A welcome relief considering some of the insanity we see on other chains.

OMB has dropped slightly since their run-up last week above 0.2. Still, they’re not far off it at 0.175.

AILU doesn’t make a huge gain on the day but doesn’t show signs of disappearing either, climbing 4.3% in value with 27 sales over the past 24 hours.

Runes

$DOG is showing how it’s in a league of its own with a 19% increase on the day, moving the market cap back up above $700M.

$PUPS and $BDC make insignificant losses on the day, but the pattern that has happened previously is that these two follow DOG’s lead after some time. Will that play out in the next few days, providing DOG keeps up the momentum?

It’s absolute scenes on $KEKIUS! Elon Musk, the inspiration for this memecoin, changed his name and PFP on X back to his usual self, and what followed was the inevitable nuking of the charts on the ETH and SOL versions of this coin.

However, not on Runes, where it is up 256% on the day!

Meanwhile, here’s some information on BITCOIN•PENNIES, which is down on the day but hangs in there at 9th for volume. Information was initially sparse on this, and volume looked odd when put up against the lack of details available, but this goes some way to explain it:

Todays Opportunities

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