Todays Top Stories

Editor: @PhoenixxDown

How Did Bitcoin Fare in 2020 Going Into 2021?

The crypto market often follows cyclical patterns, none more well-known than the 4-year cycle. Some of us were here 4 years ago in December 2020, and some of us are experiencing our first cycle. Even so, those who were here have likely forgotten what happened back then leading into January 2021!

Let’s take a look at those events, analyze them, and indulge in some speculation as to how December 2024 might influence the crypto market as it enters 2025.

And remember, none of the following is financial advice. This is just a curious examination of what happened vs. what may happen.

In December 2020, Bitcoin was trading around $23,000 after breaching its previous all-time high. This marked the beginning of a massive bull run, culminating in Bitcoin reaching nearly $65,000 by April 2021. The rally was driven by a mix of retail enthusiasm, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic conditions like low interest rates and abundant liquidity from pandemic stimulus measures.

By February 2021, Bitcoin experienced a 31% pullback—a temporary correction that acted as a consolidation phase before resuming its upward momentum. This pattern of sharp gains followed by brief corrections defined much of the market in 2020 and early 2021.

Applying 2020’s Trends to 2024

As of December 2024, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $97,500. Comparing today’s market to December 2020, the pullbacks we’re currently experiencing resemble those seen in early 2021. These similarities might guide expectations for the months ahead:

Short-Term Pullbacks and Consolidation

So far in December 2024, we have seen pullbacks of around 13%, suggesting the market is consolidating before a potential next leg up.

• 2020: Post-pullback rallies in early 2021.

• 2025 Expectation: Potential rallies into early 2025 if historical patterns hold.

Institutional Momentum

December 2020 marked the entry of institutions like MicroStrategy and PayPal, which legitimized cryptocurrencies as an asset class—though much of this adoption was speculative.

Fast forward to December 2024, institutional involvement has deepened, with Bitcoin ETFs long established and clearer regulatory frameworks in place. However, there’s still a lot of work to be done for altcoins in that area.

• 2020: Institutional adoption fueled speculation about which major player would enter next.

• 2025 Expectation: Continued growth as institutional players expand holdings, potentially accelerating price increases in 2025.

Macroeconomic Factors

The 2020 market thrived in a low-interest-rate environment with stimulus-fueled liquidity. While 2024 differs, with higher interest rates and reduced stimulus, Bitcoin’s resilience suggests a more independent growth trajectory.

• 2020: Easy monetary policies fueled speculative investment.

• 2025 Expectation: Stable monetary policies and institutional interest could support steady growth, albeit at a slower pace.

Altcoin Behavior

Ethereum, trading near $600 in December 2020, surged to over $4,000 by late 2021, fueled by the DeFi boom. In 2024, Ethereum and other altcoins are in a similar position, consolidating after recent gains. That said, while altcoins, including Runes, have had their moment in the sun briefly, they have largely underperformed when up against Bitcoin.

• 2020: Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s rally but with higher volatility.

• 2025 Expectation: Altcoins could mirror Bitcoin’s trajectory, with sector leaders like Ethereum and Solana potentially outperforming during the next rally.

By applying the lessons of December 2020 to December 2024, we can anticipate that pullbacks may serve as a springboard for future rallies. If history repeats—or even rhymes—the crypto market in 2025 will see new highs, with Bitcoin and select altcoins leading the charge. However, previous results do not guarantee future outcomes! A model is only working until it breaks.

Ultimately, while the feeling of December 2020 was slightly different from now in 2024, what followed in the first few months of 2021 is perhaps the key to watch. Are we currently experiencing those early 2021 dips? And if so:

• Is there more to come? Or has the market matured enough now that we experience shallower pullbacks?

• If we are seeing the pre-pump pullbacks occur a month or two early, does this by effect signal the cycle ends a few months early also? For context, November 2021 is where we saw Bitcoin top.

Enjoy Christmas, take a break from checking the charts (unless you’re DCA’ing these dips), read ExtraOrdinal Daily, and remember to zoom out.

Top Posts | Xverse Is Cooking Something

Top Stories | The Opensea Airdrop Saga Takes an Interesting Turn!

Top Posts | The Unofficial CEO of Runes Drops Another Banger Thread

Top Posts | You Can Now Cancel Your Runes Listings In Bulk

Top Posts | Magic Eden Is Making Light Work of the Competition

Top Posts | There Is No Second Best!

Top Posts | A Good Day For Ordinals. Do You Agree With Jan?

Daily Bites: Today’s Top Articles

Todays Markets

Catch-up with @CryptoLandy with his Friday Wrap-Up:

Ordinals

Today brings some cheer as we check the price of our beloved Ordinals on Magic Eden! Quantum Cats are up a remarkable 26.6% on the day, pushing them closer to their previous "stablecoin" price of a quarter of a Bitcoin.

However, not everything is as bright as it seems. On the 7-day chart, prices are still down, with Bitcoin Puppets suffering an 18% drop from their highs, and OMB down 9%. NodeMonkes fare slightly better with only a 2% decrease, but they are now once again in close proximity to the Puppets.

A similar trend is evident in the bottom half of the top 10, although overall volume appears slightly improved.

The resurgence of Pizza Pets has been nothing short of wild! At one point midweek, they were hovering around the $15 mark, but now their floor price has surged to $73. A big congrats to Trevor and his team for this impressive recovery!

Ethereum NFTs have been the talk of the town recently, largely driven by the $PENGU airdrop and the ongoing speculation that other projects will follow suit.

The question remains: when will Ordinals catch up?

Runes

In stark contrast to Ordinals, the Runes market continues to face challenges.

$PUPS is now dangerously close to falling below the $100 million market cap mark, and $BDC is hovering just above the $50 million point.

It’s now left to the two OGs, $DOG and $RSIC, to show strength amid the turmoil. With both being more established, they may be viewed as a safe haven trade, despite the uncertainty surrounding RSIC’s future direction.

Volume in the bottom half of the Runes top 10 is concerning, with only 0.074 BTC traded on Memento Mori in 10th place.

Bamk Of Nakamoto Dollar has re-entered the top 10, but given the aforementioned volume issues, it’s clear that the 7th to 10th positions are up for grabs for anyone with a few thousand in volume to add.

Todays Opportunities

Giveaways

Currently, there are no active raffles ongoing. However, more giveaways are expected soon, so join the Discord below and make sure you have notifications on so you don’t miss out when the next ones go live!