Todays Top Stories

Editor: @GreenCandleJack

The Market is Watching the U.S. Elections Tomorrow

After years of planning, months of campaigning, and weeks of rampant speculation and predictions, the time is almost here. Tomorrow is the day that citizens of the United States—and, apparently, people in other parts of the world—will cast their votes on who they believe deserves to be the next president of the United States of America.

We’ve covered this election here a few times already, and these next three days will be the final chapter of that story. This election will most likely have critical effects on the evolution of this industry in the short and medium term, primarily—but not exclusively—in the United States.

Today, we will dive into the final developments and updates the day before this election and summarize each candidate’s stance on the crypto industry.

Over the last few days, rampant speculation and potential manipulation have been fed on prediction markets like Polymarket. After a massive surge in the odds for Trump only a week ago, both candidates are now back at almost equal levels.

The race has been constantly described as “too close to call,” where just thousands—or maybe even hundreds—of votes could potentially make the difference. That’s why, if you are a U.S. citizen, I would say: “Make your decision and cast your vote.” Not voting may feel like opting out, but in practice, it just means you are letting others decide for you.

This aforementioned surge in betting market odds coincided with a noticeable rise in the prices of crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin. The correlation remains visible on the way down as well. This is because Trump is widely regarded as the pro-crypto candidate. Recent data shows that 1 in 5 Americans own cryptocurrencies, and 73% of crypto owners would consider a presidential candidate’s stance when they vote.

So, let’s dive into what we know about the candidates to see if this (still) holds up, starting with some anecdotal points that indicate interest in, or at least the willingness to express interest in, crypto in general.

Donald Trump has been much more vocal on the issue—surprise, surprise. 😉 He publicly turned from a crypto skeptic, due to concerns about its potential harm to the U.S. dollar, to a seeming crypto enthusiast. Trump has since launched four NFT projects with mixed success. He and his sons were heavily involved in a recent and unsuccessful crypto project launch. Donald Trump spoke during the Bitcoin Nashville event, where he promised to “fire Gary Gensler [SEC Chairman],” and floated the idea of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, a concept also supported by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who endorsed him and has since collaborated with him in this election cycle. Kennedy has been a strong advocate for Bitcoin and has proposed multiple favorable integrations between Bitcoin and the U.S. economy.

As you can see, there is no lack of interaction between Trump and the industry, although, sadly, not all of these interactions could be easily identified as positive. One positive note is his VP pick, JD Vance, who owns between $250,000 and $500,000 in Bitcoin and seems to understand the core values of Bitcoin. Vance is also not a fan of Gary Gensler’s aggressive regulatory tactics.

On the Democratic side, the information is much slimmer, with very few public statements or clear opinions on the industry.

Kamala Harris has remained very general on the topic but has stated that she wants to “make sure Black men who invest in crypto are protected.” While Tim Waltz, Harris’ running mate, hasn’t made any explicit public statements about cryptocurrencies, his legislative record suggests a cautious approach toward financial innovation.

For a little more detail, we’ve compiled a comparison between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on key cryptocurrency topics.

1. General Stance on Cryptocurrency

Donald Trump

• Pro-Crypto Shift: Initially anti-Bitcoin, Trump has pivoted to become a crypto advocate. He promotes the crypto industry, backs decentralized finance (DeFi), and has launched NFT collections.

• Bitcoin Focus: Strong support for Bitcoin, advocating for the “Americanization” of Bitcoin and proposing to hold and possibly increase the U.S. government’s Bitcoin reserve.

Kamala Harris

• Support for Innovation: Harris has been quieter but supports digital assets as part of a broader focus on emerging technologies. Her campaign generalises investments in blockchain, AI, and other innovations to maintain U.S. leadership in tech.

Conclusion: Trump has a more direct and aggressive pro-crypto stance, while Harris favours a more general approach, integrating crypto into her broader tech strategy.

2. Bitcoin Mining

Donald Trump

• Pro-Bitcoin Mining: Trump supports keeping all Bitcoin mining within the U.S., particularly as protection against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The U.S. currently controls about 40% of global Bitcoin mining, with major hubs in Texas and New York.

Kamala Harris

• No Specific Stance: Harris hasn’t made any explicit statements about Bitcoin mining.

Conclusion: Trump’s policies heavily support domestic Bitcoin mining, making it a key part of his platform, while Harris has not addressed it directly.

3. Regulatory Approach

Donald Trump

• Regulatory Reshuffle: Trump has called for a significant change at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), specifically aiming to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who has been criticised for tough regulations on the crypto industry.

• Reducing Regulation: Trump is seen as supportive of reducing or reshaping regulations to be more favourable for the crypto industry. His reshuffle plans aim to make the U.S. a “crypto capital.”

• Consistent, Transparent Regulation: Trump advocates consistent and transparent crypto rules, something that his VP J.D. Vance has already actively advocated for agains Gensler.

Kamala Harris

• Consistent, Transparent Regulation: Harris also advocates for creating consistent and transparent crypto rules creating a “safe business environment”. She promises more balanced, pro-business regulatory frameworks than her predecessor.

• Opposition to Regulation via Litigation: Harris’ campaign, in consultation with figures like Mark Cuban, opposes the current administration’s use of litigation to regulate crypto.

Conclusion: Trump favours an aggressive reshuffle of the SEC to ease regulations on crypto. Both Trump and Harris leans toward transparent and consistent regulation and agains aggressive litigation, leaving Trump as the more supportive candidate overall.

4. Taxation Policies

Donald Trump

• Favorable Taxation for Crypto: Trump is seen as “somewhat supportive” of clearer and potentially more favourable tax policies for digital assets. His administration is expected to provide clarity on crypto taxation, possibly reducing the tax burden.

Kamala Harris

• Potentially Stricter Taxation: While Harris hasn’t outlined a detailed tax plan for crypto, the current Democratic stance under Biden has been considered more hostile, with potential increases in capital gains tax and crypto taxation to raise revenue.

Conclusion: Trump is likely to offer more favourable tax policies for crypto, whereas Harris may continue policies that could see crypto taxed more heavily.

5. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

Donald Trump

• Anti-CBDC: Trump strongly opposes central bank digital currencies, which he views as a threat to individual freedoms and privacy. This opposition aligns with the libertarian wing of the GOP and parts of the crypto community.

Kamala Harris

• No Specific Stance on CBDCs: Harris hasn’t made clear her stance on CBDCs, focusing instead on broader crypto regulation and innovation.

Conclusion: Trump has a clear anti-CBDC stance, while Harris has not taken a position on the issue.

6. Stablecoin Legislation

Donald Trump

• Pro-Stablecoin, Non-Bank Issuers: Trump supports formalising stablecoin regulations but favours allowing non-banks to issue them, a more liberal stance compared to the Democratic approach.

Kamala Harris

• Supportive of Stablecoin Regulation: Like Trump, Harris supports a regulatory framework for stablecoins. However, Democrats have traditionally pushed for stricter regulations, favouring banks as issuers.

Conclusion: Both candidates support stablecoin legislation, but Trump’s stance is more flexible, allowing non-banks to participate, while Harris is likely to back more restrictive policies.

7. Key Support and Influence

Donald Trump

• Industry Support: Trump has received notable support from many top crypto executives and industry figures, like the The Winklevoss twins and Marc Andreessen, who appreciate his direct engagement with the crypto space.

• Campaign Messaging: Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric is centered around themes of national economic protection, promising to bring crypto growth and leadership to the U.S.

Kamala Harris

• Support from Innovators: Harris has garnered backing from crypto-friendly businessmen like Mark Cuban and Ripple founder Chris Larsen, who believe she is more open to crypto innovation than the Biden administration.

• Focus on Inclusivity: Harris has integrated crypto into her broader campaign of supporting marginalised communities, with a specific platform aimed at protecting African American crypto investors.

Conclusion: Trump’s support base leans toward industry leaders who seek rapid growth and deregulation, while Harris appeals to innovators and communities that benefit from regulation and protections.

Summary of Key Differences

Conclusion

• Donald Trump takes a more direct and industry-focused approach, with strong pro-crypto rhetoric, plans to reduce and clarify regulation, and policies aimed at making the U.S. a global crypto leader. His stance on taxation and mining is more favourable to the industry.

• Kamala Harris advocates for innovation in digital assets within a broader tech agenda. Her regulatory approach is more conservative, aiming for consistency and transparency while protecting investors. She is considered more favourable than Biden but less progressive than Trump in pushing for deregulation.

While both candidates promise a departure from the more hostile approach of the Biden administration, Trump provides more clarity and positive plans on what this means and is seen as the more ‘crypto-friendly’ candidate by the industry.

So there it is, do with it what you must, and be mindful of the massive volatility that is expected in the meantime. Maybe this isn’t the best moment to play with leverage trades. Although, as always, this is not financial advice.

Let me close it all off with one rule we can all agree on, cited by one of tomorrow’s candidates at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville.

Daily Alpha | Tether rumours abound

Last week, we spoke about the fabled Tether FUD, as a U.S. investigative rumor seemed to spark a familiar Tether FUD flash crash. This week, more rumors and news surround the biggest stablecoin in the industry.

Firstly, Tether is said to have dropped their previous plans to build their own blockchain for now.

Just yesterday, heavy speculation arose regarding Tether’s plans to create a USDT stablecoin on Bitcoin. These claims were swiftly dismissed by Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino.

Daily Alpha | Xverse Teases Stack Nakamoto Art

In two posts on X, Xverse teased an upcoming art collection on the Stacks Blockchain, possibly in celebration of the successful Nakamoto upgrade last week.

In their first post, they alluded to the benefits of art on Stacks, teasing the fact that they built just that. Not long after, they teased a blurred image of their art collection, also prompting interested people to turn on 🔔.

Daily Alpha | Ordinals Meet-up 2 in Oakland

The Hell Money Podcast is sponsoring the second iteration of the Ordinals Meetup in Oakland, California. Find more info on this lu.ma page if you want to join!

If you check the luma page and comment under the post, you can already see a lot of interesting and top creators participating. As an IRL event enjoyooor, I personally highly encourage meeting your fellow degens in the flesh!

🚨 Security Announcement | Bull Runs bring out the worst

With major price movements and Bitcoin nearing its all-time high, scammers will always try to take advantage. Yet another sad story broke today, and we wanted to use it to illustrate the importance of ALWAYS being aware and staying safe in this sometimes treacherous space.

Daily Bites

Todays Markets

Ordinals

Not the best weekend for collections! After a slightly positive Saturday, prices have slumped further since then. Volume is still down significantly from its highs and seems to have found some floor during these boring times.

Puppets and Nodemonkes have drawn closer to each other again, with Nodemonkes also generating the top volume today.

The Memento Mori, a collection related to the Hell Money Podcast rune, minted this weekend and is up an impressive 123%.

All other collections dropped in price today, albeit slightly, except for the Bitcoin Frogs, who saw a small price increase, swimming against the current.

As speculated in our last newsletter, we need a spark either up or down, which will most likely be seen tomorrow as the election results roll in.

Runes

Runes performed much better than collections today, with higher volume and more favourable price movements on average.

MEMENTO•MORI takes today’s top spot by volume and has transformed that into significant positive price action over the last two days. It seems to have found its post-launch bottom just above 100 sats and is possibly aiming to claim its spot as a top rune, given its Casey provenance. It’s up 33% today.

In second place, we find Dog once again, with a welcome 10% price increase, although it is still lower than on Saturday. The other Dog, Pooka, is in a similar situation, up 5% today but down from Saturday.

Apparently, animals move in waves because, with the dogs up, the cats BDC and Gizmo are both down, exactly the opposite of Saturday. On Saturday, the Pups moved with the Cats, and this pattern repeats today. I wonder if this will become a trend where Pups and Cats move together.

A big winner today and over the entire weekend is Cypher Genesis, which is up 80% today and around 2x over the entire weekend.

RSIC is still in a very similar position to Saturday, up almost 3% today and holding up quite nicely over the entire weekend.

At the bottom, Donald Trump is moving up 14% in anticipation of tomorrow’s Election Day. For this rune, the election outcome could have the most dramatic impact in either direction

Todays Opportunities

ExtraOrdinals Whitelisted mints this week

This is the last mint for this week. Check back next week for a full new list.

Giveaways

While today has not active giveaways, more giveaways are always underway so join the Discord below and make sure you have notifications on so you don’t miss out!