Todays Top Stories

Editor: @PhoenixxDown

Moon Phases: A Hidden Market Indicator?

The idea that moon cycles influence human behavior—and, by extension, financial markets—has been around for centuries. However, mention this to some, and they’ll dismiss it as nothing more than a myth, a fantasy akin to werewolf legends.

For those of you blessed with the miracle of being a parent, you may have noticed that this blessing comes with a certain… unpredictability during full moons. Likewise, law enforcement officers widely acknowledge an uptick in erratic or criminal behavior around these lunar phases.

So, what does this have to do with crypto?

Recently, Null_ptr was in The Inner Circle, the main discussion hub for XO holders, outlining the key upcoming dates he expects to be significant for price action leading into March. What are they? We give out a lot of alpha here, but if you want access to that wisdom, you’ll need an XO Unchained—available here on Magic Eden.

That said, what I can tell you is that Null pointed out some key dates tied to the moon cycle, which brings us to an interesting question: does the lunar calendar really impact market sentiment?

Lunar Cycles and Market Mood

Financial markets, including crypto, are driven by sentiment. Some traders swear by lunar influences, pointing to patterns they believe repeat over time.

The idea isn't entirely baseless. A study published in 2006, “Are Investors Moonstruck? Lunar Phases and Stock Returns," analyzed decades of stock market data and found that returns were statistically higher in the days surrounding a new moon compared to a full moon. This could be linked to the psychological and behavioral shifts people experience with changing lunar phases.

Could it be mere coincidence? Possibly. But with so much of trading being based on crowd psychology, it’s not outlandish to consider that a natural phenomenon influencing human behavior could also affect the markets.

Additionally, when you consider that the human body is made up of around 60% water, it raises the question: if the moon can influence vast oceans, is it really so far-fetched to think it might have some effect—however small—on us too?

Upcoming Phases: February to March 2025

As of February 27, 2025, we’re approaching a new moon on February 28. Historically, new moons signal fresh beginnings—potentially a dip-buying opportunity if sentiment aligns.

The full moon on March 14 is particularly interesting, as it coincides with Mercury Retrograde within a day (but that’s a topic for another issue). Full moons tend to bring market peaks, either from profit-taking or FOMO kicking in as retail traders pile in.

Looking at recent history, the last full moon (February 15) saw Bitcoin jump 3% in 24 hours, a move that many dismissed as random but aligns with past lunar-driven volatility spikes.

Key Dates to Watch:

• Waxing phase (March 1–13): Typically a period of building momentum.

• Full moon (March 14): Increased volatility, emotional trading, and potential price swings.

• Waning phase (March 15–27): Often a cool-off period after an aggressive move.

During a Full Moon Frenzy, trading volume tends to spike, and price swings become more pronounced as emotions run high. This period often brings increased volatility, with traders reacting more impulsively to market movements.

On the other hand, a New Moon Reset is typically a time for consolidation or a potential pivot in market trends. It presents an opportunity to spot trend reversals, as sentiment shifts and traders reassess their positions.

For those who find technical analysis daunting, tracking moon cycles might offer an alternative lens to view the market. It’s by no means a replacement for the deep TA work done by Null and Landy, but it’s an interesting factor to consider.

Expect Null_ptr to join us on XO Weekly soon to discuss this in more detail—hopefully expanding beyond just the moon cycle into some of his broader market insights as well.

And on that note, don’t miss tomorrow’s edition, where we’ll be hosting Nikki from Build on BOB as our special guest! Set your reminders below!

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Todays Markets

Catch up with Landy in yesterdays Wednesday Check-In:

Ordinals

It’s another day at the top for OMB, leading the charts with 11.4 BTC in trading volume. In comparison, Bitcoin Puppets, which took second place, was the only other collection to surpass 1 BTC in sales, rising 13% since yesterday.

This puts them back on par with NodeMonkes in value, setting up an interesting race to see which one pulls ahead in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Runestone—ever consistent—saw a 4% rise with 105 sales of its own.

Yesterday’s bottom half of the top 10 was all green, but that didn’t last long, with most of it turning red today.

TwelveFold, a collection with an important place in XO lore (and yes, I’ll never stop making that “joke”), reenters the top 10 with a sale at 0.13 BTC.

Are there any future plans for this collection? None have been announced since Yuga raised millions back in 2023. Things have gone eerily quiet, and speculation has dropped off entirely.

Maybe it’s time to revisit TwelveFold and take a deeper look next week.

Runes (Bitcoin Memecoins)

You’d be forgiven for thinking that there is a law stating Ordinals and Runes can’t thrive at the same time. Here we are again—Runes are up while Ordinals lag. I wonder what tomorrow will bring!

The gains aren’t massive, but they are gains nonetheless. $GIZMO is the standout performer in the top five, rising 13%. It’s becoming clear that this set of Runes at the top is the dominant group heading into the next phase—bull or bear, depending on where you stand.

$RSIC continues its slow climb, but there’s still about a month left before Block 888,888 passes, ushering in the next era of Runecoin.

$LIQ, a steady performer lately, remains far and away the top utility Rune. If your portfolio consists only of meme coins, this might be the time to consider something with a bit more substance.

With a doxxed team and real utility behind it, $LIQ stands out as more than just a speculative play.

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