Todays Top Stories

Editor: @PhoenixxDown

Read This Before You Sell Everything

Sentiment across the timeline is at severe lows, and while this newsletter usually tries to be a shelter from that low-vibrational energy, the vibes are so bad that it’s worth addressing the question weighing on everyone’s mind:

Is the cycle really over already?

Determining the end of a market cycle is never straightforward. Historically, cycles don’t end with a single event but rather a gradual shift in investor sentiment.

Bitcoin’s dominance currently hovers around 59%, signaling that it still leads the market, which is evident in how altcoins have behaved during recent crashes compared to Bitcoin’s relative resilience.

However, this doesn’t mean the cycle is over. Past bull runs have shown that even with high Bitcoin dominance, altcoins can still surge—especially if Bitcoin consolidates or corrects.

An alt season occurs when capital rotates from Bitcoin to altcoins, typically indicated by a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance.

In previous cycles, like 2017 and 2020, when Bitcoin dominance hits and then falls below 70%, altcoins—Ethereum, Solana, and others—exploded in value.

Possible catalysts for an altcoin rally:

• Bitcoin consolidation after a major rally

• Regulatory clarity favoring altcoins

• Shifts in liquidity away from Bitcoin

If Bitcoin dominance starts decreasing, it could be an early signal of an upcoming alt season.

The saying "the market tops when everyone believes it will never decline" is often true. Conversely, when everyone is convinced the cycle is over, that’s often a sign it isn’t.

Market sentiment tends to swing between extremes—either peak FOMO or absolute despair. Right now, we are very much in the thick of the latter.

Reasons for Caution

That said, let’s not be blind moonbois/girls—as much fun as that is compared to being a depressed bear. There are some warning signs that we can’t ignore:

📊 High Profit Levels:

Many investors are sitting on significant profits (NUPL at 74%), increasing the risk of profit-taking and a market downturn.

💭 Market Sentiment:

When everyone believes the market can only go up, we’re usually near a peak. We’ve seen this a few times over the past year.

💧 Declining Liquidity:

Lower liquidity = higher volatility = harder to sustain high prices.

🤷‍♂️ Retail Might Be Here:

He might not be Bob Loukas or Benjamin Cowen, but Adin Ross wasn’t wrong when he recently said: "Who is bigger than the President?"

With Trump launching not one but two memecoins, what could possibly top that as a hype driver?

The cycle might not be over, but this phase requires caution.

Keep an eye on Bitcoin dominance as a potential indicator for alt season, and prepare for increased volatility.

This market isn’t dead, but it’s getting harder to navigate—many are calling this the most challenging cycle yet, something we explored back in Issue #109.

To wrap up, if you believe in past cycle patterns, a theory floating around is that we are somewhere in the April–July 2021 stage of the last cycle.

If that’s the case… where does that put the real cycle top?

Lots of questions. Not enough answers. Stay safe.

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Todays Markets

Ordinals

Leo Caillard’s “STONES” 10K collection tops volume today, with over 3.5 BTC traded since yesterday. Floor price is currently around $85—is this a steal, given that Caillard is the artist behind the famous Runestone?

Elsewhere, the traditional top four are back together in the top five, with OMB returning after yesterday’s absence—but floor prices have taken a hit, dropping back to recent lows.

The bottom half of the market doesn’t look much better. Bitmap is the only asset in the green, and just barely, with an under 1% gain.

Let’s hope for a weekend pump—or maybe we just go lower. Either way, can we hurry up and get it over with? Cheers.

Runes (Bitcoin Memecoins)

It’s Runes’ turn to go up today, flipping Ordinals in sentiment, which had a strong showing yesterday. Tomorrow, do we see another reversal in this never-ending loop?

One standout: $RICH continues to climb with solid volume. But why?

The Rune appears to be either Chinese-founded or appealing to Chinese degens—a region that has traditionally favored BRC-20s over Runes.

To the $RICH team—we’d love to have you on XO Weekly. Hit us up in the DMs.

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